BAKU

By Lada Yevgrashina

Diplomatic efforts to clinch a durable peace in the South Caucasus hit a bump ahead of a new Armenia-Azerbaijan summit as planned talks between the foreign ministers of the two neighbouring states collapsed amid mutual accusations and recriminations.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are to hold fresh talks hosted by the European Union in Brussels next week – and diplomats hope to build on the relatively congenial atmosphere and significant results of a meeting this month – hosted by Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin.

That meeting in Russia’s Black Sea resort of Sochi, underscoring Russia’s important role in the region, was held to mark the first anniversary of an agreement to end 44 days of resumed hostilities that culminated in Azerbaijan “de-occupying” territory in and around the disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh, the focus of a conflict that beset the region into the mid-1990s. After hostilities ceased last year, a 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping force was dispatched to uphold the ceasefire.

The earlier stages of the conflict, dating from before the collapse of Soviet rule, resulted in Armenia seizing large swathes of Azerbaijan’s territory and subsequently evicting large numbers of the region’s Azeri residents.

The diplomatic hiccup occurred last week when planned talks, scheduled within the “Ministerial Council” of the 57-nation Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), never got off the ground.

Hours before the scheduled meeting, Azerbaijan accused Armenian parliamentarians of organising an illegal visit to Karabakh – firmly in Azerbaijani hands after last year’s hostilities — and refused to attend the bilateral talks.

Azerbaijani commentators said the issue was one of the fundamental principles – recognition that Karabakh was beyond any doubt an integral part of Azerbaijan

“If the organisers of Armenia-Azerbaijan talks have any interest in restoring security in the South Caucasus, they should, in the first instance, make their influence felt on Armenia and not simply offer carrots all around to everyone,” analyst Fikret Sadykov said.

Armenia offered no comment on the allegations, but in his address to the OSCE meeting, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said Azerbaijani forces had repeatedly breached Armenia’s borders since May and “maintain and continue strengthening their illegal presence on the sovereign territory of Armenia”.

The outcome of last year’s hostilities has strengthened the position of Azerbaijan in the region and dealt a blow to the authority of Pashinyan, blamed for the losses on the battlefield. But Pashinyan still managed to secure re-election by a landslide in a snap poll last June.

Diplomatic setback exposes fragile peace

And the diplomatic contre-temps underscored the fragility of any attempts to nurture and promote dialogue.

With Azerbaijan back in control of stretches of territory held by Armenian forces since the 1990s – including the country’s “cultural” capital Shusha inside Karabakh – the two sides are now committed to tackling disputes on establishing formal borders, setting up transport links and entrenching an atmosphere of stability and at least relative trust.

The two leaders pledged at their talks with Putin to proceed with measures to tackle those issues. A key concern for Azerbaijan is the opening of the Zangezur transport link giving Baku free access – through Armenian territory – to its Nakhchivan exclave. Armenia rejects the proposal on grounds that it would give the area in Armenia’s Meghri district extra-territorial status.

The Stockholm setback also drew further attention to Azerbaijan’s deep distrust of the OSCE – one of the continent’s most prominent security organisations – and its special Minsk Group tasked with solving the conflict. Baku accuses the OSCE group of doing nothing to promote a settlement in the 30 years that followed the first “Karabakh war”.

The region has been internationally recognised as under Azerbaijan’s control since the 1920s, but ethnic Armenians there had sought to break away and join their ethnic kin in Armenia. Officials say some 53,000 residents evicted while the area was under Armenian control have returned in the past year.

Azerbaijani President Aliyev readily expresses his distaste for the OSCE,  saying last year’s 44-day resumption of hostilities would not have been necessary had the organisation and the Western countries behind it taken action to persuade Armenia to leave long-occupied territories.

And this week, he restated his resolve that the new military action in 2020 was justified.

“During the war, there were those who wanted to stop us. These were powerful groups, but they couldn’t stop us. “I kept saying give us a date when our land will be liberated and then we will be ready to stop. I say the same today. Name a date when the Zangezur corridor will be open and there will be no problems.”

There was a brief outbreak of violence last month in border areas – halted after Russian intervention – with each side blaming the other for initiating hostilities. Azerbaijan said seven of its soldiers were killed and Armenia reported six dead and more than 30 servicemen captured.

Prisoners returned, map of minefield handed over

But some hopeful signs emerged ahead of the Brussels talks.

Last week, Azerbaijan returned to Armenia 10 servicemen detained in a border region since mid-November.

In exchange, Armenia provided Azerbaijan with a new map outlining areas where anti-personnel mines had been placed in areas it had previously controlled. Demining the areas now controlled by Azerbaijan has been a key issue in establishing security and proceeding with economic development.

And Turkey, which provided critical help to Azerbaijan in its offensive last year, offered to play a role in achieving a regional settlement. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the offer in a telephone conversation with Putin, citing progress at the Sochi talks.

As attention turned to the Brussels meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan, commentators said they could prove useful in firming up regional trust but cautioned against expectations of any breakthrough in relations between the two sides.

“European diplomacy has become more active in expressing its interest in establishing a post-conflict order in the region. The Brussels meeting could become significant as all the EU institutions stand behind it,” said Ilgar Velizade, head of the South Caucasus Political Club think tank.

“As for concrete details – demarcation of the border, reopening communications and concluding a peace agreement – that is more within the writ of the three-sided format, Russia-Azerbaijan-Armenia. The EU is unlikely to get involved in that in practical terms.”