The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that global growth was projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023 due to the war in Ukraine. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January.

“Economic damage from the conflict (in Ukraine) will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest,” the Fund said in its World Economic Outlook.

The IMF said that beyond 2023, global growth was forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January.

The Fund said that countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have close trade, remittance, and financial linkages to Russia and high exposure to commodity prices, so they will see the gross domestic product (GDP) growth significantly downgraded, with CCA oil importers facing a disproportionate impact.

Unresolved social tensions could also act as a drag on investment and growth. Overall, GDP in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected
to grow by 4.6 percent in 2022, the Fund said.

Below are main economic indicators for the countries of the South Caucasus region, Central Asia, Belarus and Ukraine:

ARMENIA

Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 1.5 percent in 2022 and 4.0 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 7.6 percent this year and 6.0 percent in 2023.

AZERBAIJAN

GDP is projected to grow 2.8 percent in 2022 and 2.6 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 12.3 percent this year and 8.7 percent in 2023.

BELARUS

GDP is projected to contract by 6.4 percent in 2022 and grow 0.4 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 12.6 percent this year and 14.1 percent in 2023.

GEORGIA

GDP is projected to grow 3.2 percent in 2022 and 5.8 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 9.9 percent this year and 5.1 percent in 2023.

KAZAKHSTAN

GDP is projected to grow 2.3 percent in 2022 and 4.4 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 8.5 percent this year and 7.1 percent in 2023.

KYRGYZSTAN

GDP is projected to grow 0.9 percent in 2022 and 5.0 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 13.2 percent this year and 10.1 percent in 2023.

TAJIKISTAN

GDP is projected to grow 2.5 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 10.0 percent this year and 10.5 percent in 2023.

TURKMENISTAN

GDP is projected to grow 1.6 percent in 2022 and 2.5 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 17.5 percent this year and 10.5 percent in 2023.

UKRAINE

GDP is projected to contract by 35 percent this year. There are no other projections on the country.

UZBEKISTAN

GDP is projected to grow 3.4 percent in 2022 and 5.0 percent in 2023. Annual inflation is projected at 11.8 percent this year and 11.3 percent in 2023.