Ukraine is accusing Russia of preparing for a full-scale war by moving troops and equipment towards the country’s eastern border, boosting tension after seven years of occupation of parts of the Donbass region by pro-Moscow separatists – and the failure to negotiate steps to lessen confrontation.
Russia has always denied any direct involvement in the occupation of its neighbour’s territory, which it describes as a “civil war”. Moscow has expressed worry over unspecified Ukrainian actions, alleging that these could trigger an outbreak of hostilities that could shatter a very shaky “truce” in place since last July.
But the United States has condemned Russian “aggressive and provocative actions” and pledged to pursue efforts to help Ukraine defend itself. Ukraine’s chief of staff and top military commander told parliament this week that 28 units of Russian troops had massed near the border with separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
A similar buildup was underway in Crimea – occupied and annexed in 2014 during the “revolution of dignity” that ousted Ukraine’s Moscow-friendly president Victor Yanukovych. Yanukovych was forced into exile in Russia after a bloodbath in central Kyiv which left 130 dead after running street battles.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia had “driven the situation into a dead end from which there can be only one way out – diplomacy. Moscow must halt its military pressure and immediately and unconditionally confirm its commitment to a political and diplomatic settlement and to a cease-fire”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin this week accused Kyiv of failing to abide by agreements intended to prevent new violence. Ukraine, he said, should talk to the the Donbass-based separatists, who are aided financially and militarily by Moscow.
This is anathema to Ukraine’s government, which considers the separatists little more than puppets of Moscow.
Not even Russia, let alone any other countries, have recognized the separatists claim to “independence”.
The Donbass is a relatively poor region which historically relied on coal extraction. Many residents had fled even before the violent events of 2014, seeking better fates abroad. That exodus has dramatically continued since the outbreak of serious hostilities. Some 14,000 people have died.
PRESIDENT TAKES TOUGHER STANCE
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has adopted an outwardly tougher stance regarding the war with Russia after coming to power in 2019 and promising to end the conflict.
But his stated principle at the time of “all that has to be done is stop the shooting” is a position criticised by opponents and in particular nationalists as tantamount to capitulation.
Zelensky said Moscow was attempting “to create an atmosphere of threats and pressure during talks.
“The process of peace negotiations is not an easy one and no one expected it to be easy. Our strategy is that there must be peace and our people and our land must be handed back,” he said this week.
The United States has provided Ukraine with considerable military assistance since the separatist takeover and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014. Washington has led the effort to impose Western sanctions against Russia.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Taran, recently, that Washington “reaffirmed unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” referring to Kyiv’s drive to closen cooperation with Western institutions, even NATO.
No serious analysts, however, believe that Ukraine is anywhere close to membership in the Atlantic alliance.
Ukrainian Commentator Vitaly Portnikov told U.S.-funded Radio Liberty – RFERL.org – that Kyiv could also expect support from France and Germany – the two Western countries involved in the “Normandy format” talks aimed at entrenching a peace settlement with the Kremlin-backed Donbass separatists.
But ultimately the ball fell into the court of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine, Portnikov said, was still trying to determine why exactly Russia was engaged in the current alleged military buildup – for instance in response to President Zelensky’s initiatives to curb political forces and media in Ukraine sympathetic to Moscow.
“But to be honest, the reasons here are not the important thing,” he said. “What is important is the understanding that a truce can in no way be called peace. And not only is ‘Putin’s truce’ not peace. It is also an effective instrument to blackmail Ukraine’s government and influence the mood in the country.”