Ukraine’s central bank governor, Kirill Shevchenko, said the country’s economy would likely register a contraction in the first quarter of 2021, largely because of lockdowns imposed in connection with the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We are not expecting any growth in GDP in the first quarter. We will most likely register a negative in yearly terms,” Shevchenko told the Interfax Ukraine news agency.

But the effects of lockdowns imposed in January and again last month will not affect the overall trend of growth this year. The central bank is forecasting GDP growth of 4.2 percent for 2021, while the government has pegged its growth forecast at 4.6 percent The International Monetary Fund predicts a 4.0 percent increase.

Shevchenko said the January lockdown had shaved 0.2 percent of GDP growth.

“It was not that great. It was supposed to affect consumer confidence as previous lockdowns had an effect on retail figures, hitting in particular restaurants and hotels,” Shevchenko was quoted as saying. “But we did see some retail growth. And the effect on other sectors, like steel, was minimal.”

Shevchenko also said Ukraine might secure credits of more than $2.7 billion from the IMF under a plan for an expansion of the Fund’s special drawing rights – as occurred in 2009.

Talks with the IMF are still proceeding on disbursing further credits under a $5 billion standby arrangement clinched last year. The Fund has already disbursed $2.1 billion, but its latest mission ended in February with the IMF saying more progress was needed on ensuring central bank independence and rooting out corruption.