BAKU/YEREVAN

Azerbaijan and Armenia remained in a deadlock as the two antagonists inched forward with the tedious process of demarcating their borders amid Armenian charges that Azerbaijani troops have “occupied” tiny portions along a frontier established in Soviet times.

At the heart of the matter is restoring long-closed trade routes. This issue was agreed in a November 2020 agreement effectively bringing to an end a six-week Azerbaijani advance to restore lost territory and effective ending a war that erupted in the early 1990s. But some Armenian politicians have baulked as the rail and road route would restore crossings across its territory.

Armenia says an Azerbaijani commando group entered a disputed area near that transit corridor late last week. This has been seen by analysts as a pressure tactic to put pressure on Yerevan to open the route, closed since 1992-1993, and of potentially huge importance, and to display that Armenia, whose military was routed in late 2020, has no cards to play.

Acting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called the alleged incursion an encroachment into Armenian territory, but Yerevan is in no position to resist. Slammed by high-tech Azerbaijani weapons which over-ran old-style Armenian trenches, its war losses were fast and humiliating.

On Sunday, Armenia said some of the Azerbaijani troops had withdrawn, though an unspecified number remained.

Azerbaijan says Armenia is over-reacting. Baku says it is simply demarcating the border area.

Armenia counters by saying Azerbaijani forces have “occupied” an area three kilometres deep in its territory.

The Azerbaijani assault ended Armenia’s long occupation of internationally recognised Azerbaijani territories from which more than 600,000 Azeris were ethnically cleansed.

FOREIGN ALARM

Foreign actors, including the EU and the United States, have expressed varying degrees of concern about the border issue.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged maximum restraint.

“The delimitation and demarcation of borders should be resolved through negotiations in the interests of the safety of the local population. We welcome the ongoing technical contacts between the two sides,” Borrell said.

There has been no violence, and the two sides have been negotiating, with the participation of Russian peacekeepers who moved in after the Moscow-brokered cessation of hostilities last November.

Yet no full agreement has been reported.

French President Emmanuel Macron took the Armenian side, insisting Azerbaijani troops “withdraw” from Armenia, though his meaning was unclear. “Azerbaijani troops entered the Armenian territory. They must return immediately. France has supported and will continue to support the Armenian people”, he added.

French diplomats have admitted in the past that the large Armenian diaspora in that country could not be ignored as an electoral force, and Azerbaijan has long called for Paris to be replaced amont the so-called “Minsk Group” co-chair countries – Russia and the U.S. are the other two – which were not successful in mediating a peaceful end to the nearly 30-year conflict.

Leyla Abdullayeva, head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s press service, advised concerned parties to recall the occupation of Azerbaijani land until November 2020 before making statements about ‘sovereign Armenian territory’. “At the core of the tension on the border is the illegal occupation of Azerbaijani land. Azerbaijan is only restoring its violated territorial integrity. Now, Azerbaijan is strengthening security on the border, and this is being done on the basis of maps available to Baku and Yerevan. Azerbaijan respects the sovereignty of borders, territorial integrity and inviolability,” the Foreign Ministry clarified.

The ministry described Armenia’s response as inadequate, serving as a political tool in the country’s campaign for a July snap election.

Pashinyan holds a huge lead in opinion polls ahead of the next month’s election against a smattering of ultra-nationalists, an oligarch, and career oppositionists. Despite detractors who say he “lost the war” with Azerbaijan, polls show many people are fed up with the conflict and are more concerned with low living standards and epic levels of emigration.

POST-WAR WOES

Though no diplomats or regional analysts have predicted another full-scale war, the fracas is illustrative of the intricacies involved in a full resolution of the conflict.

At the heart of the matter is Azerbaijan’s geo-strategic position.

One of the main developments of 2020 was the reopening of a rail and road route closed since 1992 which connected Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, and thus Central Asia.

Reviving that route depends on the restoration of a 40-km stretch of territory between Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave and the rest of Azerbaijan, crossing Armenian territory.

The route historically was a transport hub for routes connecting Europe and Asia.

Yet some Armenian politicians, evidently reacting to local sensitivities, have lately resisted opening the route.

Some analysts in Azerbaijan have suggested this is not merely rhetorical face-saving, but also contravenes last year’s peace deal.

AZERBAIJAN SAYS WILL IMPLEMENT PROJECT BY FORCE IF NEEDED

“Putting pressure on Armenia to open the route in the form of minor border forays is a measure to remind them that this was part of the peace agreement,” said one Baku analyst.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has also put a blunt emphasis on the issue.

“With a reasonable approach to the issue, almost all of Azerbaijan’s neighbours, including Armenia, can benefit from the revival of old and implementation of new projects,” he said last week.

“We are implementing the Zangezur corridor, whether Armenia wants it or not. If they do, it will be easier for us, if they do not, we will decide it by force,” he said.

“Azerbaijan has made an enormous contribution to the launch of regional connectivity projects such as East-West, North-South, North-West transportation corridors. We are now working on the Zangezur transportation corridor, which will be an integral part of the East-West corridor connecting Asia and Europe through Azerbaijan,” he said, adding that this corridor will allow Azerbaijan to strengthen its position as Eurasia’s transport and logistic hub.

“First, (Armenia) will finally get a rail link with Iran, one of its main economic partners. As is known, precisely because of the lack of the necessary financial resources and the inability to attract foreign investments, Armenia was unable to build a railway to Iran from its territory. Now, freight traffic between Iran and Armenia can be carried out along a new corridor. In fact, in this way, it will also get rid of the economic blockade into which it has driven itself over the past 30 years due to the occupation of the Azerbaijani territories,” he said.