MINSK

The Kremlin has thrown Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko, isolated by the recent incident in which Minsk forced an EU-registered plane flying from Greece to Lithuania to land and arrested a dissident Belarusian journalist, another lifeline.

On Friday, Moscow gave Minsk another $500 million to shore up its economy.

The move comes as Minsk faces further isolation by the European Union after the incident involving a routine flyover of its airspace. The Ryanair 737 with more than 120 onboard was diverted for what seems to be the sole purpose of arresting a 26-year-old independent Belarusian journalist critical of Lukashenko. A Belarusian MiG-29 shadowed the Ryanair flight as it approached Minsk.

On Saturday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made it clear he thought Moscow was involved, further complicating NATO-Russia relations.

“We know the very close relationship between Russia and Belarus, and therefore it’s hard to believe that the regime in Minsk could do something like this without any kind of coordination with Russia,” Stoltenberg told Sky news.

Days after the incident, Lukashenko was invited to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea coast city of Sochi, a favoured haunt for high-level Kremlin-called get-togethers.

He was pictured descending a state airliner clad in one of his trademark, workmanlike simple shirts. He later changed into a suit to meet Putin.

There were few other details released, other than that the duo met for five hours. Belarusian state news agency BelTA added that Putin, who likes to show off a sportsman’s image, invited the much stockier and taller, two-metre-tall Lukashenko for a swim in the Black Sea.

“The sea is getting warmer and warmer. I think it will also contribute to the achievement of results of today’s meeting,” BelTA quoted Putin as saying. ” And on a Friday so that one could definitely take a dip in the sea on the weekend. It is how I understood this invitation,” the agency reported Lukashenko as responding.

The $500 million cash infusion was unlocked as part of a three-tranche, $1.5 billion aid package approved last year and makes Lukashenko more dependent on Moscow after years of attempts to try and weigh that reliance on Russia with dalliances with the West.

END OF “EASTERN WIFE, WESTERN MISTRESS ACT”

But Lukashenko now seems finally and wholly reliant on Russia, whether he likes it or not. At times, the former state farm manager has bristled at anything that could be interpreted as surrendering Belarusian sovereignty while accepting significant de facto subsidies from Moscow.

Artyom Shraibman of Sense Analytics, based in Minsk, said the balancing act was now collapsing. “Every new step toward the isolation of Lukashenko by the West inevitably increases his dependency on Putin,” he told the Wall Street Journal.

Another Belarus specialist, Kyiv-based Vitaly Portnikov, speculated the long conversation likely included something of a guarantee that Lukashenko could stay in power if he toed the line from Putin — or even allowed his country to be absorbed by Russia.

“Putin could simply say to Lukashenko at any time, ‘you know, Alexander, no one would be able to close off your airspace. And you would still be able to run Belarus and be a member of the [Russian] Federation Council. And you’d have a good pension and could appoint your son afterwards…’”

The latter referenced a frenetic move by Lukashenko in the last month to modify the succession structure in the country in case of his demise – from the prime minister to the country’s Security Council – by adding allies to the body.

One of his sons is considered its de facto leader. The scramble to modify the pecking order seems by some analysts to be designed to head off full-scale swallowing of the country by Russia.

Belarus was steamrolled during World War II – its unfortunate position between Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union – and relatively flat – making it the perfect buffer state bloodbath ground. Estimates say as many as a third of the population died.

The country has struggled to rediscover its own identity. At independence 30 years ago, most people spoke Russian as their native language, except a small intellectual elite and more rural types, though that has been changing of late.

Lukashenko has at times flirted with the EU, Ukraine, even with Georgian ex-leader and Kremlin hate figure – Mikheil Saakashvili. He’s sometimes clashed openly with Putin when the latter has dismissively suggested Belarus should simply merge with Russia.

But the end of the high wire act was likely the Ryanair incident, which even hardcore Lukashenko opponents said surprised them in terms of audacity.

The forced diversion came as it was outside EU-member Lithuanian airspace and prepared for a descent into Vilnius.

Some EU leaders called a hijacking. It seemed only to produce a journalist largely unknown outside Belarus who had been living in exile since attracting attention as an editor for the Telegram channel “NEXTA”.

The pilots of the Ryanair plane were warned to divert to Minsk under the pretext that Belarusian authorities had reports of a bomb on the craft, though none was found upon its landing and subsequent search in Minsk.

Instead of finding bombs, ex-NEXTA reporter Roman Protosevich, and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega, a Russian citizen, were yanked from the plane and carted off by security police. They had been living in exile in the Lithuanian capital.

Protosevich faces up to 15 years in prison for “fomenting mass riots”. Ironically, the 26-year-old has been alive only as long as Lukashenko has held power (also 26 years), and why the strongman leader would squander what was left of his reputation to round up the reporter is befuddling to some analysts.

Since the arrest, the reporter has been shown on Belarusian state TV expressing contriteness and saying he was being treated well. His supporters and friends allege he is likely under duress.

BELARUS LESS VIABLE WITHOUT RUSSIA

The Belarus economy did not attempt the “shock therapy” of many other post-Soviet states when the empire collapsed in 1991. Instead, it engaged in gradual reform, keeping in place things like state-subsidised prices for essential groceries.

It earned him a reliable base of support, though it is impossible to measure, and elections have been routinely regarded as fixed.

But none of the command-style tactics, price controls, or relative stability would have been possible without Russian subsidies in various forms.

They have come in the form of cheap natural gas and electricity imports and deals to buy things like Belarusian tractors and heavy-loading trucks to prop up the country’s economy produced by a population of 10 million. A fraction of the heft of 140-million-strong Russia.

This was later aided by a captive market for Belarusian exports to Russia. The country, which has a highly educated workforce, even established a niche for software engineering firms contracted with Western, including American, firms at much lower rates than companies would have to pay at home.

DAMAGE CONTROL CASH

Often-bickering EU leaders seemed unanimous in denouncing the act as outrageous. They essentially closed off Belarus to EU planes or as a destination or departure point for the bloc. Overflight fees are a tiny portion of any country’s budget.

This in itself is a symbolic but not a colossal blow, and some EU officials even suggested it could just push Lukashenko more into Moscow’s orbit. It also plans to sanction any Belarusian officials involved in the forced landing.

Even these moves were met with outrage by Lukashenko in parliament, who ranted international terrorists were behind the incident.

The EU was also contemplating banning potash fertiliser imports from Belarus, accounting for 20 percent of Minsk’s exports.

Even this is truncated because Belarus can likely redirect the fertiliser to China via Russia, where it is in high demand.