TASHKENT

Uzbekistan’s economic growth will more than treble this year, according to government forecasts, as an increase in raw material prices, combined with higher exports, boosted the recovery in the first quarter.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow 5.1 percent from 2020, when it expanded 1.6 percent, the president’s spokesman Serzod Asadov said. The country’s GDP grew by 3 percent year-on-year in January-March with industry increasing 3.8 percent year-on-year, agriculture 3.1 percent, services growing 2.8 percent and construction 0.5 percent.  Per capita GDP grew by 1 percent year-on-year to $353.4.

Positive growth this year is expected to accelerate in 2022 to 5.8 percent, Asadov told reporters.

The volume of investments in fixed assets amounted to 35.6 trillion soums ($3.4 billion)  in the first three months of this year. Investments from non-centralised sources, amounting to 31.3 trillion soums, increased by 13.6 percent over the same period last year.

In January-March 2021, commercial banks allocated 32.9 trillion soums of loans to the economy, which is 11 percent more compared to the same period of the previous year.

An increase in the price of raw materials in the first quarter of this year helped boost the export of goods, excluding gold and gas, by 25 percent from the same period in 2020. At the same time, the export of non-ferrous metals increased by 58 percent, textiles by 38 percent, and chemical products by 21 percent.

Central Asia’s economy was hit hard as the COVID-19 pandemic forced government to impose restrictions worldwide, and oil prices dropped, impacted by lower demand and difficulties in controlling supply.  Uzbekistan, on a drive to reform its economy and open it up to foreign investors, has shown some of the more sustained signs of recovery. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev earlier this year urged his ministers to find ways to spur growth to 6 percent this year,  a rate that exceeds most economists’ forecasts.

The World Bank said earlier this month that Uzbekistan’s economic growth is expected to recover to 4.8 percent this year. However, it cautioned that this forecast was subject to uncertainty surrounding the global recovery and the pace of the country’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign.

“A gradual resumption of trade and investment flows, a bountiful agricultural harvest, a recovery of remittances, and vaccine distribution will support the recovery and spur further reductions in poverty and unemployment,” the World Bank said in its economic outlook report.

Stronger GDP growth of 5.5 percent is projected in 2022 as vaccination efforts accelerate and global disruptions ease further.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the country’s GDP is projected to grow 5.0 percent in 2021 and 5.3 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 10.3 percent this year and 11.2 percent in 2022.