(Ukraine’s former foreign minister in 2007-2009, diplomat Volodymyr Ohryzko has commented on possible diplomatic consequences for Belarus and its President Alexander Lukashenko after an incident with a Ryanair 737 flight on Sunday.

This article was first published on nv.ua on May 26. The views expressed are the author’s, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Tribune).

For our Western partners, the time has come when it is necessary either to make decisions or sign off on helplessness.

If the EU and the West as a whole do not react harshly and adequately to Lukashenko’s trick, then, excuse the non-diplomatic wording, not only (Russia’s President Vladimir) Putin, but also (Belarus’s President Alexander) Lukashenko, or both, will wipe their feet about this collective West.

Therefore, the answer must be tough, even though they traditionally say in such cases: “Well, we cannot punish the Belarusians, we must punish the regime.”

But now we are talking about the regime, which is to blame for the fact that the Belarusians are suffering. And the sooner this regime is punished, the easier it will ultimately become for the very Belarusians. Therefore, I expect really tough and painful sanctions from the EU.

Lukashenko personally, according to some sources, is associated with the production and export of potash from Belarus, as well as oil refining through dummy structures. They say he has certain personal dividends from at least these two areas of the Belarusian economy. So, if this is true, then at least start with this. The transit of goods could also become a very serious threat to the Belarusian regime.

But here, as always, one has to think about alternative moments and take into account what may happen, because a total blockade, on the other hand, will mean Lukashenko’s transition to total dependence on Putin.

Is it beneficial for the West? I don’t think so either. So here again they will decide and measure in millimetres what and how could be done in order to keep Belarus as a more or less sovereign state and not finally give it to Putin, and at the same time punish Lukashenko. So the task is not easy, but it is already impossible not to react.

Lukashenko still has no other direction than the Russian one. But at the same time, he tries, eryone, as he did for decades, to play with Putin, beg for more billions, to promise and then not to fulfil what Putin wants. Namely, the actual absorption of Belarus. Therefore, the position of the West is interesting here, which, realising this, will try to make sure that, after all, finally, not to bury Belarus as an independent state. Because it is not in the interests of the West for Russia to sprout into Belarus as a mere part of it.

The meeting between Putin and Lukashenko, which will take place on Friday, I think, will produce nothing new. It will show only one thing – what we have known for a long time, but what some politicians in the West do not want to fully understand, that in modern Europe there are two totalitarian regimes – Moscow and Minsk. And no matter how they talk about Lukashenko as the last dictator in Europe, I disagree with that, because there are two of them. And they are equal in their essence, actions and threats to their own fellow citizens.

On the import substitution of Belarusian goods consumed by Ukraine. Tell me, why don’t Lviv residents produce buses that will meet European standards? They can, obviously. Can’t we establish in Ukraine – and this has been said for decades – the production of Ukrainian oil? But for this, the Ukrainian government needs to think about the strategic tasks of Ukraine’s security. If we do not allow oil-producing companies and do not stimulate them to drill new wells, as is happening today, then it is obvious that we will buy Russian diesel fuel through Belarus.

And if you look at this problem strategically, of course, we will not solve it in a year, but we can do it within 3-4 years. And during this time there will be no problems to purchase diesel  on the world markets. A quick reorientation to other sources of supply is a completely possible scenario, but not about what needs to be bought somewhere, but about making, using and selling to someone else. But, unfortunately, it seems to me that we have two consignments in Ukraine – a consignment of importers and a consignment of exporters. So, in my opinion, our party of importers always wins everything that is possible, both economically and then politically.

And one more point – about the likelihood of provocations on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. To our great regret, we are now in fact taken in ticks – and from the north, from the east, and from the south, Ukraine is actually and de facto surrounded by the Russian Federation, because, believe me, Putin will in no way ask Lukashenka, and if he does, he will get it. certainly agreeing to move our troops wherever Putin needs it. Therefore, I hope that our government realistically assesses the threats that arose not yesterday or the day before yesterday in connection with this exacerbation, but for a long time, and I think that our Armed Forces should also be able to repulse {threats} along  the northern section of our border.