Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko defied Western condemnation of his strongarm tactics, denying any notion he repressed protesters who staged mass weekly rallies against him and insisting his firm stand against the demonstrators had prevented the outbreak of a “New World War”.

Lukashenko is increasingly isolated and has been increasingly erratic and rash in his reactions — after a long string of international scandals that prompted tougher Western sanctions targeting the fragile and debt-ridden Belarusian economy.

A PRESS CONFERENCE TO PUT FIDEL CASTRO TO SHAME

It would be hard to make a neat summation of President Lukashenko’s main trains of thought.

He made them during an eight (8) hour news conference in Minsk. The marathon speak-a-thon could not but conjure comparisons with unique discourse styles; the likes of such were once employed by the late Cuban President Fidel Alejandro Castro Ruz. Fidel Castro’s talk of fame came during a four and half hour (269 minutes) speech in front of a UN General Assembly gathering in New York in 1960.

Of course, Lukashenko did more than speak. He engaged journalists at the press conference marking his re-election to a sixth term a year ago – the object of the mass demonstrations alleging mass election fraud – he predictably accused the West of orchestrating the protests to subvert a legitimately elected head of state.

STILL “WALKING THE LINE”

But he also dismissed emphatically any suggestion that, whatever his circumstances, he would allow his sole economic and military ally, Russia, to swallow up his country under the guise of a long-debated “union state”. Many Western diplomats who have served in Minsk refer to this as “Walking the Line” – a time-endured Lukashenko tradition of trying to balance his dependence on Russia with tangos with the West, or even Ukraine. And emphasising he would never give up the independence of Belarus.

Alas, any chance the Belarusian strongman had at maintaining this highwire act have disappeared.

A year after the protests unexpectedly gripped Minsk and other cities only to be snuffed out by brutal police tactics, the opposition is bruised and unable to marshal any real resistance to the president. Its leaders are either in jail or calling for even firmer Western action from bases in exile – mainly in Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine.

“We were getting ready for the election, which was to take place in conditions of complete transparency and the democratisation of political activity. The only difference was some people were getting ready for fair and honest elections, while others were making calls to ‘pound those in power and for a coup,” Lukashenko told the gathering, dubbed “The Big Conversation with the President.”.

“Belarus is at the very intersection of major roads. If we had shown weakness during the protests, we would have been completely stripped clean. And as a result, a new world war would have broken out.”

Major violence was avoided, he said, “But if it had happened differently, Russia would never have allowed Belarus to be lost. And a real mess would have ensued, with a nuclear power involved. That’s what we avoided.”

“There were no repressions and there will be no repressions in the future because I do not need that,” he said. “It would be like shooting myself in the head.”

FAMILY, BUT NO MERGER

But the Belarusian leader was perhaps most eloquent in describing his relationship with Russia and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin – whose offer of help during the mass protests he declined. And he insisted Belarusians were committed to maintaining statehood and there could be no question of absorption by a much larger and more powerful neighbour.

“Some people are trying to ruin our integration and push us away from Russia by suggesting that integration means Belarus becoming a part of Russia,” he said.

“You are family to us – this has always been my policy. At the same time, we are a sovereign and independent state, and our people are very happy that after many centuries we have become sovereign and independent. When I hear these suggestions that Belarus is to become part of Russia, I think – does Russia truly need yet another headache?”

Lukashenko has for years tried to maintain a balance between upholding a close relationship with Russia while trying to ingratiate himself with Western countries with offers of policy changes.

This has come to an abrupt halt in recent months with the police action against protesters, the diversion of a scheduled flight to Minsk and the arrest of an independent journalist on board, as well as two scandals in the past week – the refusal of Belarusian sprinter Krystina Timanovskaya to be sent home from the Tokyo Olympics and the death of a Belarusian opposition activist found hanged in a park in Kyiv.

Belarus has received large credits from Russia to counter the effect of sanctions imposed by the West. Lukashenko acknowledged during the news conference that he was engaged in talks with the Kremlin to secure an additional $1 billion loan.

Recent figures put Belarus’s state debt as of April at $23.7 billion. Foreign currency and gold reserves dipped by 4.6 percent in the same month.

NEW SANCTIONS

The latest European Union sanctions slapped on Belarus in response to the diversion of the Ryanair Aircraft and the detention of the 26-year-old journalist, aimed squarely at the Belarusian economy, mainly the export of potash, used in fertiliser and in great demand in China, India and other countries.

But the EU still opted to go slowly in implementing the measures for fear that Russia, a major potash producer, could pick up the slack in shipments.

The United States, Canada and Britain marked the anniversary of the disputed Belarusian election by imposing a fresh round of their own punitive measures.

U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order blacklisting the Belarusian potash company Belaruskali and took similar action against the Belarusian National Olympic Committee, alleging it was involved in money laundering schemes, circumventing visa bans and flouting earlier punitive measures.

Britain banned sales of Belarusian potash and oil. This prompted Lukashenko to berate a British journalist at the gathering: “You can choke on your sanctions…You are America’s lap dogs!”

Lukashenko’s opponents marked the anniversary of the vote in subdued fashion – pleased to have the nominal backing of Western leaders while powerless to make any inroads on Lukashenko’s long hold on power.

“In the space of a year, the Belarusian regime, once legitimate, has become terrorist in nature, using violence as its main means of governing,” Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, defeated by Lukashenko in the election but who now calls herself the legitimate president of Belarus from exile in Lithuania. She has met in recent weeks with Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

“I am often asked what I would have changed had I known while voting last year exactly what was going to happen. But there are no ifs or buts in history.

“I  know the choice made by the Belarusian people a year ago. I made the same choice and assumed responsibility for it. However long it takes and however much strength is required I will carry on along the same path, together with Belarusians.”