The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts lower economic growth for the global economy in 2021 than its previous projection in July, mainly due to worsening pandemic dynamics. That includes lower economic growth forecasts for some countries of the South Caucasus region and Central Asia.
“The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July 2021 World Economic Outlook update,” the IMF said in its new report.
The Fund said that the downward revision for 2021 reflected a downgrade for advanced economies—in part due to supply disruptions—and for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics. This is partially offset by stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies, it added.
“Aggregate output for the emerging market and developing economy group (excluding China) is expected to remain 5.5 percent below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024, resulting in a larger setback to improvements in their living standards,” the IMF said.
Below are main economic indicators for the countries of the South Caucasus region, Central Asia, Belarus and Ukraine:
ARMENIA
Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 6.5 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 8.0 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2022.
AZERBAIJAN
GDP is projected to grow 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.3 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 4.5 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2022.
BELARUS
GDP is projected to grow 0.5 percent in 2021 and 1.3 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 9.4 percent this year and 7.1 percent in 2022.
GEORGIA
GDP is projected to grow 7.7 percent in 2021 and 5.8 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 13.1 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2022.
KAZAKHSTAN
GDP is projected to grow 3.3 percent in 2021 and 3.9 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 7.5 percent this year and 5.8 percent in 2022.
KYRGYZSTAN
GDP is projected to grow 2.1 percent in 2021 and 5.6 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 12.6 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 2022.
TAJIKISTAN
GDP is projected to grow 5.0 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 8.0 percent this year and 6.5 percent in 2022.
TURKMENISTAN
GDP is projected to grow 4.5 percent in 2021 and 1.7 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 16.0 percent this year and 10.0 percent in 2022.
UKRAINE
GDP is projected to grow 3.5 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 10.2 percent this year and 6.0 percent in 2022.
UZBEKISTAN
GDP is projected to grow 6.1 percent in 2021 and 5.4 percent in 2022. Annual inflation is projected at 10.6 percent this year and 10.2 percent in 2022.