Russian troops joined forces from Moscow’s ex-Soviet ally Belarus in mass manoeuvres near the Ukrainian border as Western diplomatic initiatives produced little tangible progress in reducing tensions over the Kremlin’s long-running troops buildup in the region.

Western estimates put at about 30,000 the number of Russian troops taking part in the exercises – along with most of the Belarusian army. Russia also made preparations for manoeuvres in the Black Sea, triggering a protest from authorities in Kyiv, who denounced the naval movements as a deliberate measure to blockade ports and disrupt trade.

U.S. President Joe Biden issued a new, stark warning to Americans to leave Ukraine, saying no rescue operation could be mounted later and warned against any scenario that might pit Russian and U.S. servicemen against one another.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was the latest Western dignitary to visit Moscow and was given a generally icy reception days after a diplomatic foray into both Russia and Ukraine earlier in the week by French President Emmanuel Macron. The French leader had appeared to try to consider various diplomatic approaches to reduce tensions, but in the end stuck to a call to implement accords signed earlier to resolve Ukraine’s eight-year-old conflict with Russian proxies in the eastern Donbas region.

Western and Ukraine estimate now put at 130,000 the number of Russian troops deployed around the ex-Soviet state’s borders. Eight years after it annexed the Crimean Peninsula and fomented the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russia says it has no intention of staging a new incursion.

Moscow has instead issued demands for a “security guarantee” from NATO and the United States, including an undertaking that the Atlantic alliance will expand no further and Ukraine will never be allowed to join. NATO rejects those notions out of hand but has offered talks on disarmament and on establishing confidence-building measures on exercises and other issues.

Moscow’s deployment in the Belarus manoeuvres has involved bringing in forces normally based in far away Russian regions, including eastern Siberia. Video provided by the Russian Defence Ministry showed rows of rocket launchers firing from positions in a field and two battalions of S-400 surface-to-air missile systems and 12 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets were also taking part.

Russian officials have said the troops will return to base once the exercises are over, but Western nations have cast doubts on that assurance.

Ukraine angrily denounced Russian plans for Black Sea drills as “an abuse of international law”, but Russia said all its exercises were lawful with proper notice given.

“This is a dangerous moment for European security,” Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary-General, said, describing Russia’s military deployment to Belarus as its biggest since the end of the Cold War. “The warning time for a possible attack is going down.”

Icy Russian-British meeting

In Moscow, veteran Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was nothing short of derisive in his exchanges with British Foreign Secretary Truss: ​​“The conversation turns out to be between the dumb and the deaf,” Lavrov said. “We seem to listen, but we do not hear.”

Truss retorted: “I certainly wasn’t mute in our discussions.”

Britain, along with the United States, has increased shipments of weaponry to Ukraine as the crisis has intensified.

Putin was slightly more conciliatory, telling reporters that negotiations with the West were continuing over Russia’s demands to alter European security arrangements. He said he would speak again to Macron in the coming days.

Earlier this week, the French president spent five hours in Moscow with Putin, who said afterwards he saw some of the French leader’s proposals as “feasible”.

At one point, Macron told reporters that one of the options under consideration was “Finlandisation” for Ukraine – a Cold War term under which Finland agreed to a strictly neutral foreign policy but was allowed to maintain its democratic institutions and independence. That would rule out Ukrainian membership of NATO.

Macron later denied making any such suggestion and said the best path for resolving the conflict was to stick to the Minsk accords – signed in 2014 and 2015 when Ukraine was under intense pressure from armed Russian proxies in Donbas. The accords call for restored Ukrainian control over its border with Russia but with conditions, including a loosening of central control, that many in Ukraine say would give Russia undue control over its affairs.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky came to office in 2019 vowing to clinch a peace deal with Putin, but now says Ukrainian membership of NATO is the only way to solve his country’s problems. Putin refuses to discuss the matter with the Ukrainian president, accusing him of being under Washington’s sway.

The Kremlin leader held two virtual meetings with Biden in December and has received a series of European dignitaries in recent weeks.

Little progress from “Normandy” format

France is the main advocate of the “Normandy” format – including Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany as participants – to resolve the Donbas conflict, which has killed 14,000 since 2014. Diplomats from the four countries held “Normandy” talks in Berlin on Thursday, but no serious progress was reported.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited NATO headquarters in Brussels where he told reporters that the standoff has entered “the most dangerous moment” and went on to meet Polish leaders in Warsaw.

Germany Chancellor Olaf Sholz issued a fresh call for de-escalation during talks with the leaders of the three ex-Soviet Baltic states in Berlin – who asked him to play an increased role in the regional crisis. Politicians in the United States and Western Europe  – including some in Germany – have accused him of being too cautious in refusing to send military help to Ukraine.

Biden, interviewed by NBC News, told Americans to leave Ukraine quickly.

“We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly,” he said.

There was no prospect, he said, of U.S. troops being sent to Ukraine, whatever the circumstances.

“There’s not. That’s a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another. We’re in a very different world than we’ve ever been.”

Some of the 3,000 troops Biden pledged to send to Eastern Europe in the past two weeks have arrived in Poland and Romania.