Russia held new military exercises near the Ukrainian border while showing no signs of backing away from a months-long troop buildup, while Western leaders scheduled fresh talks or considered imposing new sanctions on Moscow if the deployment culminated in an invasion of its neighbour.
Russia marshalled tanks, drones, paratroopers and ships as part of a new show of force in its drive to secure “security guarantees” focusing on undertakings to ensure no further eastward expansion of NATO and a bar on membership of the Alliance.
In Belarus, Russian troops disembarked armoured vehicles and other equipment before joint drills with Belarusian forces. In Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, Russian tanks launched planned shooting exercises. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov restated accusations that the U.S. and NATO were responsible for the tension, saying they were orchestrating “information hysteria” about Ukraine.
Russian officials have repeatedly denied any plans to invade Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who has called for separate European negotiations with Moscow, said he would discuss the situation with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin on Friday.
Macron said it was important to have multiple formats for discussion with Moscow.
“Every one of those channels has to be used, fully used, to bring Russia back to a process of de-escalation, to get guarantees, to make sure that we build this new security and stability order,” he said after meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “That you have guarantees, commitments — apart from the Ukraine issue — to provide security on the borders of our Europe.”
Diplomats from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France were to gather in Paris for talks about the ongoing tensions.
New sanctions under consideration
Both the United States and Britain said new sanctions were under consideration, including punitive measures aimed directly at Putin.
Taking questions from reporters, Biden replied “yes” when asked whether he could see himself imposing sanctions on the Russian president personally in the event of an invasion.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said her government was also examining tough, new measures.
“What is important is that all of our allies do the same. It is by collective action. By showing Putin we’re united, we will help deter a Russian incursion,” she told the BBC.
Tensions had seemed to be ebbing somewhat late last week when both Russia and the United States appeared conciliatory after a day of talks between the Kremlin’s veteran foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Lavrov described the hastily-arranged talks in Geneva as “a useful, honest discussion,” while Blinken said they were “direct, businesslike” without polemics.
“I hope the emotions subside a bit,” Lavrov said.
Western and Ukrainian estimates put the number of troops deployed near Ukraine’s border at about 100,000. Troops have been redirected to the area from as far away as Russia’s far east and a large contingent has also been dispatched to Belarus, Russia’s ally on its western frontier, for joint exercises.
The United States and NATO have described Russian demands as non-starters, but Blinken said after last week’s meeting with Lavrov that Washington would submit written replies to Moscow’s proposals on security guarantees.
Nearly eight years after annexing Crimea and fomenting a separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine, Russia denounces its ex-Soviet neighbour – and its president Volodymyr Zelensky – as a vassal of the United States and says any notion of Ukrainian NATO membership poses an existential threat.
U.S. troops on high alert
The Pentagon said 8,500 U.S. troops had been placed on high alert to deploy at short notice. No decision had yet been made on whether to deploy troops – that would be subject to the Alliance deciding to activate its rapid-reaction force.
There were no plans to send troops to Ukraine.
NATO said it was boosting its “deterrence” in the Baltic Sea area, with deployments already mostly announced by individual countries. Denmark, Spain, Bulgaria were dispatching ships or aircraft to Eastern Europe. France said it was ready to send troops to Romania and the Netherlands pledged to deploy fighter jets by April.
Biden last week said he believed Russia would stage an invasion of some sort in Ukraine, but created a measure of confusion by initially distinguishing between an invasion and a smaller incursion and saying the reaction in Western countries might not be uniform. He and other officials later offered clarification, saying any incursion amounted to an invasion.
Biden spoke to European leaders on Monday who “reiterated their continued concern about the Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders” during an 80-minute video conference and discussed “preparations to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia for such actions as well as to reinforce security on NATO’s eastern flank.”
Biden said he had been assured of “total unanimity with all the European leaders”.
In the lead-up to the latest consultations, U.S. weapons previously earmarked for Ukraine began arriving in Kyiv. Anti-tank weapons had arrived last week from Britain.
And at the weekend, Britain accused Russia of planning to install a pro-Russian government in Kyiv and even identified a former member of Ukraine’s parliament, Yevhen Muraev, as the figure identified to head such an administration. Muraev, an opponent of President Zelensky, but not especially close to Moscow, dismissed the allegation, as did Russia.
It was only two weeks ago that Russia, the United States and NATO were engaged in three rounds of talks in three European cities, packed into a four-day period. The Russian demand for “security guarantees” was the focal point,
Russian negotiators pronounced those talks to be a failure, with one saying they pushed relations into a “dead end” – prompting another day of exchanges last week between Blinken and Lavrov.
Russia seized Crimea in 2014 after mass protests in Kyiv drove out the country’s Moscow-friendly president from office and soon after, Russian proxies took control of large swathes of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. More than 13,000 have died in nearly eight years of conflict.
Diplomatic efforts have made no progress in settling the dispute over Donbas and Putin refuses any direct talks on the issue with Zelensky.
Macron last week called for the resumption of the “Normandy Format” – bringing together France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine – to tackle the Donbas issue. Moscow has rejected any new Normandy meeting, clearly preferring to deal directly with Washington.
Zelensky came to power in 2019 with a pledge to clinch a deal with Moscow on returning Donbas to Kyiv’s control, but now says any solution depends on Ukraine joining NATO.
NATO issued a promise at a 2008 summit that Ukraine – and ex-Soviet Georgia — would “one day” join the Alliance, but no date was set and the prospect looks remote.