Russia softened its tone in the crisis surrounding its mass buildup of forces on Ukraine’s border, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggesting that its strategy of military pressure while pursuing negotiations was working in the pursuit of its aim – Western recognition of its security concerns.
Britain’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, echoed Western warnings by saying a Russian military incursion into its ex-Soviet neighbour could well be imminent. Some Western intelligence sources have said an invasion could be launched as early as Wednesday, 16th February.
The Kremlin has described such warnings as the “peak of hysteria”. But U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said a “window of opportunity” to avoid military action remained and called for further diplomatic efforts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meeting with Germany’s new Chancellor, said seeking NATO membership – a strategy virulently opposed by Moscow — remained a chief objective, but acknowledged that such a move could be a “dream” with no certain outcome.
Some 130,000 Russian troops are deployed on Ukraine’s borders eight years after Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula and fomented a separatist uprising in the eastern Donbas region, a conflict in which 14,000 have since died. Some 30,000 Russian forces are taking part in large exercises in Moscow’s ex-Soviet ally Belarus, to the north of Ukraine.
Moscow has repeatedly denied it has any intention of invading Ukraine but has held several rounds of talks with Western countries and NATO on its demand for “security guarantees“ that the Atlantic alliance will expand no further and Ukraine will never become a member. Western countries reject those demands, saying NATO has an “open door” policy of membership and no country may dictate foreign policy options to a neighbour.
Televised Kremlin exchange between Putin, Lavrov
In a carefully choreographed exchange shown on Russian television, Lavrov told Putin that the Kremlin leader’s very public drive to persuade Western countries to offer Moscow guarantees had clearly borne fruit – Western leaders were knocking on Moscow’s door to discuss the matter. And further diplomacy, he said, could yield results in reducing the tension around Ukraine.
Lavrov told Putin that “the security guarantees that you proposed and which we are very clearly advancing and in which have clearly identified our interests jolted our Western colleagues and became the reason they have no longer been able to ignore many of our previous appeals.
“I believe that our possibilities are far from exhausted,” Lavrov said, referring to Russia’s negotiations. “Of course, they must not go on indefinitely. But at this stage, I would propose continuing and intensifying them.”
Putin responded laconically: “Good.”
More television footage showed Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu telling the Kremlin leader that “large-scale drills” around Ukraine were coming to an end.
In Kyiv, German Chancellor Olaf Sholz said Western countries “know what to do” should Russia make a new incursion into Ukraine.
“In the event of military escalation, we are ready for very far-reaching and effective sanctions in coordination with our allies,” he said, standing alongside Ukrainian President Zelensky.
Biden and Johnson, in a telephone call, agreed that there was still a “crucial window for diplomacy and for Russia to step back from its threats towards Ukraine”.
According to a statement issued by Johnson’s office, the leaders said that an invasion would result in a “protracted crisis for Russia, with far-reaching damage for both Russia and the world”.
Biden, speaking to Putin at the weekend, his third such talk in two months, said Washington would respond “decisively and impose swift and severe costs” if Russia moved into Ukraine.
The diplomatic carousel in Moscow showed no signs of a letup.
Sholz was due to fly on to Moscow on Tuesday and visits to the Russian capital this week have been scheduled by the foreign ministers of Poland, a fierce critic of the Kremlin, and Italy.
Zelensky said Ukraine was pressing on with its drive to join NATO, as set down in Ukraine’s constitution. That contradicted a statement by Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain that Kyiv might be prepared to abandon that notion to facilitate negotiations. But the president appeared to acknowledge that NATO membership was not a realistic prospect, at least for some time, until it met the Alliance’s requirements.
“How long is Ukraine to move along this path, who will accompany it, who will its friends and partners be and support our country along the path?” Zelensky said.
“And perhaps the question of open doors is a story, like a dream, a signal pointing to where we are going. And no one knows when we will get there. And not only Ukraine, but some NATO members too. The main thing is that our army must be powerful.”
With a dozen countries, including the United States, withdrawing or relocating embassy staff from Kyiv, Zelensky has accused Western countries of issuing “too much information” and sowing panic among Ukrainians.
“Day of Unity”
On Monday, he posted the latest in a series of video appeals on social media, proclaiming 16th February a “day of unity” with special patriotic displays. “We are being threatened with a great war and a date has even been announced. And not for the first time. Our country is stronger than it has ever been,” the president said.
The Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, Olexiy Danilov, wrote on social media: “As of today we do not see any mass invasion by the Russia taking place on the 16th or 17th…But our army, our troops, the defence sector, are ready for any challenge.”
The United States sent an additional 3,000 troops to Poland at the end of last week, bringing the total number of new forces dispatched to close to 6,000 in recent weeks.
Moscow’s deployment in the Belarus manoeuvres has involved bringing in forces normally based in far away Russian regions, including eastern Siberia. Russian officials have said the troops will return to base once the exercises are over, but Western nations have cast doubts on that assurance.
Russia has also been preparing for drills in the Black Sea, denounced by Ukraine as “an abuse of international law”, but Moscow has said all its exercises were lawful with proper notice given.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who spent five hours in the Kremlin with Putin last week, says the best path for resolving the conflict is to stick to the Minsk accords – signed in 2014 and 2015 when Ukraine was under intense pressure from armed Russian proxies in Donbas.
The accords call for restored Ukrainian control over its border with Russia but with conditions, including a loosening of central control, that many in Ukraine say would give Russia undue control over its affairs.
France is the main advocate of the “Normandy” negotiating format – including Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany as participants.