U.S. President Joe Biden said last week just such an invasion was “a distinct possibility” sometime in February. NATO and Washington have rejected Moscow’s demands outright but have offered further talks on issues such as disarmament pacts and establishing rules for staging military exercises.

The contents of replies from the United States and NATO were not disclosed. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said Washington had made clear its “core principles” and could not accept any notion of a Russian veto on NATO membership and on the choice of alliance partners to be made by Ukraine.

Global growth is expected to moderate from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than in the IMF's October forecast.