Ukraine’s wheat harvest could hit record levels of up to 32 million tonnes this year on the back of high yields and favourable weather, propelling agriculture to the forefront of factors behind economic growth in 2021.

The Grain Trade trading company said improved weather meant that 72 percent of the wheat harvest was now complete.

“Against the background of high wheat yields in the southern regions and taking into account the traditionally high yield in the central and western regions, forecasts of the wheat harvest at the level of 31-32 million tons are increasingly likely,” the trading company reported on its website.

The country’s previous record wheat harvest was 28.8 million tonnes, recorded  in 2019.

Russian agriculture consultancy Sovecon cut its forecast for the 2021 wheat harvest by 5.9 million tonnes to 76.4 million tonnes.

Kazakhstan decreased its 2021 wheat output estimate to 11.9 million tonnes from 13 million tonnes – compared to a harvest of 13.66 million tonnes of wheat in 2020.

Yields in Ukraine had leapt some 14 percent and  stood overall at 4.55 tonnes per hectare against 3.98 tonnes last year. Yield figures were particularly high – 6.06 tonnes per hectare — in the west-central regions of Khmelnytsky and Volyn.

“Favourable weather this season is pushing grain yields higher…,” wrote Andriy Perederey of analysts Concorde Capital. “In this way, agriculture will be among the key drivers of Ukraine’s GDP growth this year.”

Perederey put the wheat harvest forecast at 29.5 million tonnes.

Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry predicted that the country’s exports of all grains would hit 56 million tonnes – from an overall harvest of 75.8 million tonnes, also a record.

That figure would include 21 million tonnes of wheat and 31 million tonnes of corn.

The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club reported that food exports to the European Union were up 10 percent year-on-year for the first seven months of this year. Last year, Ukraine’s food exports to the EU dropped by 11%, compared to 2019.

Sovecon issued a forecast of 37 million tonnes of Russian wheat exports.

In a development expected to help facilitate Ukraine’s position as a grain producer and exporter, U.S. food giant Cargill acquired 61 percent ownership in the Neptune grain terminal in Pivdeniy, Ukraine’s busiest Black Sea port.

The plant has an annual capacity of 5 million tonnes of grain and its terminal berth has a 16-metre water depth, enabling it to receive large vessels.

Cargill first signed an agreement on the construction of the terminal in 2016. The company said in a statement: “Neptune is meeting the growing demand for deep water port infrastructure in Ukraine by giving farmers access to new distant markets.”

Minority owner Andriy Stanitser of MV Cargo said the terminal had received 132 vessels and processed more than 6.6 million tonnes of grain over the past three years.

And the National Scientific Centre Institute of Agrarian Economics reported that farming was the most profitable economic activity in Ukraine last year, generating $3 billion in income. Some 83 percent of Ukraine’s farms made money, while 17 percent lost money.